LEXINGTON — Arkansas. Mississippi State.
Those are the only two teams projected to finish behind Kentucky football in the SEC this fall.
Winding up slightly better than that might be a successful season, according to outsiders' expectations.
Just don't tell that to coach Will Stein and the Wildcats. While they're well aware few are picking them to stun the college football world in 2026, that doesn't mean they're willing to accept it.
Three games against 2025 College Football Playoff participants — Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas A&M — will be difficult. But at least nonconference matchups against Youngstown State and South Alabama should be chalked up as victories. How the Cats fare in their other outings will be the difference between a bowl berth and their third consecutive year missing out on the postseason.
Kentucky football's best-case scenarios in 2026
Wildcats start the season 4-1
Youngstown State is a stout FCS program. But UK isn't shelling out money to lose its opener. Kentucky carries that momentum into the SEC opener against Alabama. There, the Wildcats earn only their third victory in the history of the series to give the Stein a signature triumph early in his tenure. Playing at Kyle Field? With a quarterback (Kenny Minchey) making his first road start? Kentucky suffers its first loss under Stein. South Alabama provides a breather the following week before Kentucky moves to 2-1 in conference play, stunning South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium. Even better for UK: It snaps USC's four-game win streak in the rivalry.
Cats extend their recent recent dominance over Florida
Even if one removes Kentucky's vacated win over Florida in 2021, the Wildcats still have captured three of the past four meetings. Recall that the Gators once beat UK 31 consecutive times. Like Kentucky, Florida has a new man in charge: Jon Sumrall, the ex-UK linebacker and assistant coach many fans had anointed as the Wildcats' future head coach. Given that context, losing this game wouldn't be good in the optics department for Stein. The good news for him? His players don't let him down, as Kentucky earns a three-point win at Kroger Field in a back-and-forth tussle.
UK reclaims the Governor's Cup, returns to bowl season
Growing up in Louisville, Stein is as familiar with the Governor's Cup rivalry as anyone. Though he played quarterback at UofL, Stein grew up attending UK games. The Cardinals are back on top of the rivalry, winning the past two matchups — in convincing fashion both times. But the Cats don't allow the streak to reach three. UK escapes with a victory in the final minute. Kentucky has too many losses during the season to figure into the College Football Playoff picture, but getting back to a bowl — in Year 1, no less — shows Stein has the program pointed in the right direction.
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Kentucky football's worst-case scenarios in 2026
UK's too-close win in the opener is a sign of things to come
While Youngstown State hails from the level below the FBS, it boasts a quarterback in Beau Brungard who can give any opponents fits. He does just that against the Cats, forcing the hosts to sweat out a victory until midway through the final period. That's a bad sign for UK. Jumping into SEC a week later, the Crimson Tide rolls to yet another win in a series they dominate. Road games at Texas A&M and South Carolina? Two more setbacks. The only reprieve for Stein's squad is a lopsided win over South Alabama at the end of September.
Wildcats fall to Florida in a one-sided result
Losing to the Gators is one thing. The Wildcats have lost plenty of games to the Gators over the years. But Sumrall's UK background, and the fact he had his share of supporters in the fanbase who still yearn for him to be the head coach, will be an obstacle Stein will have to overcome throughout his tenure. The bad news: Sumrall and the other ex-Cats coaches and staffers on the Gators' roster make an example out of the hosts, putting half a hundred on the board at Kroger Field. It's a PR nightmare for Stein.
Cats lose to CFP-bound Cardinals yet again
By the time the Governor's Cup arrives, UK's season has been a disaster. A narrow victory over Vanderbilt is the only thing preventing a winless conference campaign. Nonetheless, the Wildcats will be sitting at home during bowl season for the third time in as many years. Their reward in the finale? Bitter rival Louisville, which will earn a CFP spot this fall. The Cardinals show how far away the Wildcats are from making this rivalry competitive again, rolling to a 48-10 win in Lexington. To top it off, UofL fans torment UK fans afterward. They don shirts they printed with Stein's face on it, featuring Kentucky's final record (3-9) and with the caption "Because of me" above the photo.
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for Kentucky football in 2026
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