The same economy measured using different price bases can lead to different estimates of sectoral and aggregate growth. Such differences do not imply that one estimate is correct and the other is incorrect. The public discussion of GDP growth often overemphasises a single aggregate growth rate. The 7.8 per cent headline growth may be seen as evidence of broad-based economic expansion, while a lower rate may be seen as evidence of economic weakness.
Base-year revision and real economic growth
Revising the base year in the national accounts is an important exercise in measuring real economic growth. The objective of rebasing is not just to replace one set of prices with another. A base-year revision may also involve improved data sources, improved methods, revised sectoral weights, and better coverage of emerging economic activities. Consequently, changes in measured growth rates from one series to another should not be taken automatically to represent changes in the real performance of the economy.
Comparing GVA growth rates across sectors for 2011-12 and 2022-23 suggests that the same broad period can yield substantially different readings of economic momentum. The debate then is not just whether India is growing fast or slow. It also examines how we measure growth, which sectors are driving it and whether the statistical series fairly represent the current structure of the economy.
Sectoral growth under the 2022-23 base
The sectoral growth pattern in the 2022-23 base tells a somewhat different story about the Indian economy. Q1, GVA growth under the new base was 6.94 per cent in 2023-24, rose to 7.46 per cent in 2024-25, moderated slightly to 6.95 per cent in 2025-26, and then accelerated to 8.23 per cent in 2026-27. Over the first three years of the series, the agriculture sector grew steadily. Industrial growth was 9.20 per cent in 2024-25 and remained robust at 8.60 per cent in 2026-27 (see Chart 1).
Sectoral growth under the 2011-12 base
The growth story is very similar when using the 2011-12 base for the same period. Under this series, aggregate GVA growth was extremely high at 9.94 per cent in Q1 of 2023-24. The strong performance is mainly attributed to the services sector, which registered an exceptionally high growth rate of 12.55 per cent in Q1 of 2023-24. Aggregate GVA growth fell to 6.55 per cent in Q1 of 2026-27 (see Chart 2). The examination of India’s growth rate in the 2011-12 and 2022-23 base years shows similar trends.
The change in growth narrative
The growth story changes with the base year for several reasons. First, relative prices change over time, and price relationships prevailing in 2011-12 may differ significantly from those in 2022-23. Secondly, over the past decade, India has seen significant expansion in modern economic activities, including digital services, telecommunications, fintech, logistics, professional services, infrastructure, and more. Older bases might not fully capture the current importance of these sectors. Third, growth measurement can be subject to methodological improvements. This means the differences between the two series cannot be ascribed to the price base alone.
The main implication is that base-year revision alters the statistical lens through which economic growth is viewed. That doesn’t necessarily mean the real economy got stronger or weaker overnight. The revised series may well give a more current picture of an economy where the structure, prices and sources of value addition have changed considerably. That is why the current debate on India’s GDP growth should not be confined to a narrow comparison of headline growth rates.
Ranjan is Assistant Professor, Regional Institute of Education, NCERT, Mysore; Kumar is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Banaras Hindu University; and Mishra is Professor and Head, Department of Economics, DAV PG College, BHU
Published on September 11, 2026
