Iranian weapons fuel Houthi blitz
Five Saudi-backed Yemeni military sources told Reuters that the new Houthi campaign along the Tihama coastal plain began with a barrage of rocket fire and was directed by IRGC personnel. The sources, citing communications intercepts and accounts from captured Houthi fighters, said they believed the operation was being overseen by Abdolreza Shahlaei, a senior IRGC commander associated with the Qods Force.Iranian sources did not immediately confirm Shahlaei’s involvement. They said, however, that IRGC personnel had previously spent time in Yemen and that the force continued to move weapons and personnel into and out of Houthi-controlled areas despite an aerial and maritime blockade.The Houthis’ expanding arsenal appears to have played a key role in the speed of the offensive. Ahmed Nagi, a Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Reuters that the group’s military evolution had been driven by new weapons obtained either directly from Iran or through smuggling networks, particularly drones used in the latest offensive.Iran publicly denies directing the Houthis and says the group is an ally rather than a proxy. One Iranian official cited by Reuters said the move on Mocha was a Houthi decision, although it also served Tehran’s interests by putting upward pressure on oil prices and increasing pressure on the US and Saudi Arabia.
Why Mocha matters to Iran
Mocha is around 80 kilometres from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage through which a significant share of global trade normally travels. The Houthis’ capture of the port therefore gives them a potentially stronger position to threaten shipping along one of the world’s key maritime routes.The development comes as traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb remains heavily disrupted by Houthi attacks. Shipping through the waterway has fallen sharply since the group began targeting vessels in late 2023, forcing many companies to divert around Africa.The strategic importance of the route has increased further as Iran’s conflict with the US and Israel has disrupted shipping through the nearby Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia had sought to reduce its dependence on Hormuz by routing oil through pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, but renewed Houthi threats have curtailed that activity, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.The capture of Mocha also represents the Houthis’ biggest territorial gain since the 2022 truce that brought relative calm to Yemen after years of civil war. Its advance has raised fears that the country could slide back into a wider conflict, with the consequences potentially extending beyond Yemen to Saudi security, Red Sea shipping and global energy markets.